Macroeconomic forecast 2025

“Macroeconomic Forecast” is a periodical publication of the BNB. It is prepared by the Economic Research, Forecasts and Monetary Policy Directorate and reflects the prospects for the development of the Bulgarian economy. The latest issue presents the expectations for the main macroeconomic indicators for 2025*.

Highlights of the publication

• Annual average inflation is forecast to amount to 3.3% in 2025. The main contributors will be food, goods and services with administratively determined prices and tobacco products, as well as services.

• An assessment based on the current inflation outlook for Bulgaria and the European Commission’s latest inflation outlook for the rest of the European Union shows that Bulgaria can meet the convergence criterion on price stability in January 2025 and continue to do so for the rest of the year.

• Bulgaria’s real GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 2.3% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. These dynamics will be mainly driven by the projected shift of investment and exports of goods and services from decline in 2024 to growth.

• In 2026, annual average inflation is projected to slow to 2.1%, mainly due to the decline in food group inflation and administratively determined prices. Underlying inflation is expected to remain similar to its 2025 level.

• Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.0% in 2026. The main reason will be the contraction of the negative contribution of net exports and the acceleration of private consumption growth.

• The forecast for headline inflation at the end of 2025 has been revised towards higher consumer price inflation. This will result from substantial upward revisions in the groups of goods and services with administratively determined prices, tobacco products and food. At the same time, the forecast for annual inflation at the end of 2026 has been lowered.

• Bulgaria’s real GDP growth forecast has been revised towards a slightly higher growth rate in 2024 and lower growth in 2025 and 2026. Economic activity growth in 2026 has been revised negatively mainly due to a projected larger negative contribution of net exports.

Note

*”Macroeconomic Forecast” was created by the Economic Research, Forecasting and Monetary Policy Directorate of the BNB. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the members of the BNB Board of Governors on the development of the Bulgarian economy. The authors of this publication do not accept any responsibility for the use of the forecasts, estimates and all other information.

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